Tim McGraw- “Let It Go”

Tim McGraw is back on the radio with the title track to his latest album, which marks the 6th single from the album.  This is the second time Time has released that many singles from one album.  However, the circumstances are much different.  When Tim released six singles from Everywhere, he was having the greatest radio success of his career to the point.  Four singles hit #1 on Billboard while two hit #2 (“One of These Days went #1 on the R&R chart at the time). 

Let It Go is not on the same ground as Everywhere is overall quality of music for the time (you can’t compare an album released in 1997 to an album released in 2007 straight up, you have to adjust to the popular sound of the time).  The best song on the album wasn’t even originally on the album, nor did it go #1 (“If You’re Reading This” was added after Tim performed it at the CMAs last fall and it peaked as a single at #3).  The first single, “Last Dollar (Fly Away),” went to #1 primarily because it was off his first studio album in three years and the cute ending that included two of his daughters on vocals (among other children).  More than a year after it went #1, I hardly hear it anymore.  Instead, I either hear the newest song, or radio stations play his classics from previous albums, which bucks a current trend in radio (where recent hits get played so much in “recurrent” play that new songs from the same artist tend to have a problem establishing themselves on radio).

“Let It Go” comes to radio after Tim failed to make the Top 10 with his last two singles (I was a little miffed that “Suspicions” didn’t make it).  The theme of the song, letting go of all the bad things in his past, is a much more likeable than his previous single “Kristofferson.”  I really think “Let It Go” should’ve been sent to the radio instead of “Kristofferson” based solely on the fact that “Kristofferson” was not a tribute single to Kris Kristofferson (you could’ve replaced him with any famous songwriter and it would fit).

I do think that Tim and his people should’ve just let this album go as it seems that they are just trying to release anything from the album.  I’m sure if either or both of his two previous singles had spent more time climbing the charts, they wouldn’t feel compelled to “fill in the gap” between this album and the next one.  As a matter of fact, I don’t think Tim has ever had a “break” from radio as it seems that once his next album is ready, they release the first single to the radio.  I do think that radio would be worse off without a new Tim song, but I also think that Tim and his people shouldn’t push mediocre songs to radio and concentrate on making excellent music (which is what I hope they are doing now since Let It Go was a little bit of a disappointing album to me).

For Tim McGraw, mediocre is always good enough to be Top 20 (see “Drugs or Jesus” and his last two singles, the only official Country singles since his debut album not to make the Top 10).

Single Prediction- Top 20

CML Chart for 7/27-8/2/08

Number One:
Alan Jackson’s “Good Time” spends its second week in a row at #1

Highest Debut:
This week’s one and only new song is Tim McGraw’s “Let It Go,” which debuts at #51.

Leaving The Top 60:
The former #1 “Better As A Memory” by Kenny Chesney is the only song from last week’s Top 60 to leave.

The Top 60

Phil Vassar- “I Would”

Most times, when an artist has such a big hit, I’d be worried about the next single and whether it will be given proper support to see where it can get on the charts (see my review of Billy Currington’s “Don’t”).  However, despite being #8 in recurrent airplay, “Love Is A Beautiful Thing” is not the type of hit that everyone clings too.  It was a different sound for Phil and a “seasonal” song (it’s about a wedding and the goings on there).  “I Would” returns to the normal Phil Vassar sound–the piano is the main instrument driving the song, and the lyrics are simple, yet clever.

“I Would” is about all the things he would change if he could.  It’s simple, entertaining, and a nice listen.  However, I think Phil’s signature sound is not enough for this song to be as big of a hit as “Love…” was or his other big hits.  I can see this one easily making the Top 20, possibly flirting with making it to the Top 10, but I ultimately see it stalling out just short has more music comes out this fall.  It could also be flirting when Christmastime comes and be one of the songs that radio doesn’t bring back after they’ve played all the Christmas music (a little more than 4 months would be a normal time for some songs to be climbing to that point…this is not a “blockbuster” single that will fly up the charts).

Single Prediction- Top 20

To listen to the entire song, visit Phil’s MySpace page.

Billy Currington- “Don’t”

Another Billy Currington song, another one that won’t get the play it deserves.  After getting “Good Directions” to #1, Billy struggled to get the lead single to his third album Complicated Man to get to #30.  Why?  Everyone was still playing “Good Directions” like it was his current single.  As a matter of fact, I still here it at least once a week.  I think that this song is not as good as “Tangled Up” was, and I think it may have the same trouble getting up the charts.  It’ll get a lot of new airplay at first, but it will eventually level off and probably stall in the Top 30, a little higher than “Tangled Up”

Radio needs to move onto the new music like it would do in the 90s.  There’s plenty of airtime to play a song a few times a week that everyone likes.  “Tangled Up” was one of a growing number of songs that don’t get airplay because everyone is still obsessed with the previous single.  Examples:  Big & Rich’s “Between Raising Hell and Amazing Grace” was never really accepted because “Lost In This Moment” was still getting a ton of play; “You Still Own Me” by Emerson Drive was overshadowed by “Moments”;  “‘Til I Was A Daddy, Too” by Tracy Lawrence was overshadowed by “Find Out Who You Friends Are”; the list goes on and on.  All of these songs never were given a chance to survive on the charts because many markets were still playing their previous song without giving the next single a fighting chance to make it into their rotations.

Single Prediction- Top 30

To hear a portion of “Don’t,” visit Billy’s MySpace page.

Trisha Yearwood- “They Call It Falling For A Reason”

Trisha yearwood is a fine singer, I’ll give some of her fans that much credit.  However, it seems that she’s yesterday’s news.  Radio barely played her last two singles enough to get to #19 and #25 respectively.  Despite good vocals, well written songs, and a modern sound, it seems her singles become afterthoughts after enough time has gone by.

“They Call If Falling For A Reason” falls into the same category as her previous two singles–well written, well done vocally.  I can’t see it doing any better than the previous songs, and may barely crack the Top 30.  I can’t see it getting as high as “This Is Me You’re Talking To” but it should get to at least #30.

There’s a lot of people out there, established and fighting for establishment, that are not getting the radioplay they deserve.  Trisha, unfortunately, falls into that group.  She’s established as an artist, but her music is no longer a must play at radio.  Radio will play anything she’s got to make it modest hits, but the days of her releasing songs that are guaranteed Top 10s has passed.

Single Prediction- Top 30

To listen to the full song, visit Trisha’s MySpace page.

Gretchen Wilson- “Don’t Do Me No Good”

When Gretchen Wilson stormed onto the scene in 2003 she was the “must play new artist.”  She scored a #1 with “Redneck Woman,” and then three more Top 5’s off her debut album Here For The Party.  Even the title track for All Jacked Up made it to the Top 10.  Then, something happened…radio seemed to stop playing her new music with the same enthusiasm.  Whether it was something she said, some arrogance she started passing along, or something the record company did, she just wasn’t as appealing anymore.  And her radio success was progressively getting worse.  In order, her singles peaked at #22, #23, #25, #32, #35, and #53.  (She’s credited with a #36 at wikipedia at one point, but she was one of several artists featured on a Hank Williams, Jr. song called “That’s How They Do It In Dixie,” which I don’t count towards her singles).

If you ask me, I think her music starting getting off of what made people fall in love with her.  People liked the edgy, attitude laden, uptempo music she had.  “When I Think About Leavin’” was her only ballad released as a single from her first album, but it was such a well written, country sounding song that it was successful on its own.  What happened was she started releasing songs that didn’t seem to have the edge, or the attitude, or uptempo.  “Don’t Do Me No Good” brings all of those elements back and should easily get Gretchen back into the Top 20.  I think recent history will not affect this song since it’s the perfect song for people to be reintroduced to what Gretchen is about.  However, I do think the quality of the music out there right now, I can’t see her getting back to the Top 10 with this (it might grow on me and others, but for now, no Top 10).

Despite what the “Muzik Mafia” might be about, I really think she needs to keep the edge and attitude in all of her uptempo songs and look for ballads that are just great music.  It might tough for her to do all this, but if she’s able to, she’ll be back in the Top 10 consistently like at the start of her career.

Single Prediction- Top 20

To listen to the entire song, visit Gretchen’s MySpace page.

Lee Ann Womack- “Last Call”

Lee Ann Womack is back with her first single off her upcoming Call Me Crazy album.  For Lee Ann, she goes back to the sound and feel of her early songs like “A Little Past Little Rock” while having a current feel to it.  This song is definitely better than most of the music she’s had out since “I Hope You Dance,” but I don’t think it’ll get enough attention to get her back in the Top 10 again.  Since “I Hope You Dance” was a big hit in 2000, only the follow up “Ashes By Now” made the Top 5 and only “I May Hate Yourself In The Morning” also reached the Top 10.  She hasn’t had bad music out, just underappreciated music by the radio.  She’s been getting acclaim from the awards shows for some of her music since then, but radio just hasn’t matched that.  I think she’ll get back to the Top 20 easily, and might push the boundaries of the Top 10, but I have a feeling that she’ll once again get shafted by radio.  Of course, Top 20 is still good.

Single Prediction- Top 20

To listen to the entire song, visit Lee Ann’s MySpace Page.

Carrie Underwood- “Just A Dream”

That loud noise you just heard when you opened up this link was my “sigh of relief” as I have been slightly worried that the best overall song on Carrie Underwood’s Carnival Ride album would go unreleased as a single.  The previous three singles all had Carrie has a co-writer and it was apparent that the record label was trying to get her songwriting credibility.  With “Last Name” getting a last minute push into the #1 spot (it jumped from #5 to #1, leapfrogging two songs that have since gone #1) , Carrie know had three #1 singles to her name.  With a 4th song of hers on the album, I was afraid they would release that one next, putting the chances of “Just A Dream” being released in jeopardy.  Apparently, the company was well aware of the fact that they had a huge hit on their hands.  This song combines good song writing (you can actually see a video for this in your head if you listen to the lyrics), a subject that touches everyone (a young woman losing a solider husband, presumably in war), and an outstanding vocal.  Honestly, Carrie is about the only one who could’ve pulled the song off the way it is. 

We are all obsessed with Carrie’s music and I can safely say that this will go #1.  If this song does not make it to #1, then a lot of radio stations didn’t try hard enough with it.

Funny story, I heard this song on the radio on the way to work this morning.  The DJ introduced the song as a surprising loser to the previous Friday’s “Friday Night Fight,” the station’s weekly contest where two new songs compete with each other, the winner getting to defend its title the following week while picking up more airplay.  The songs only can win three times I believe before being taken out of the fight, but the losing song doesn’t necessarily not make it into the heavy rotation.  The funny thing is, Carrie’s song lost to Bucky Covington’s “I’ll Walk.”  Two heart tuggers fighting and the one from the lesser star wins.  I don’t see this as a bad thing for “Just A Dream,” just a great thing for another American Idol contestant trying to establish themself on radio.

Single Prediction- #1

To listen to the final minute of the song, go to Carrie’s MySpace page.  I’m sure they’ll have the full length version of the song up eventually.

CML Chart: 7/20-7/26/08

Number One-
Alan Jackson- “Good Time”
This is Alan’s 8th CML Chart #1.  The song is currently at #2 on the Billboard Charts.  If it goes #1, it will be his 24th Billboard #1 (15 of which he had before my chart started in 1998).

Highest Debut-
Carrie Underwood- “Just A Dream” at #43

Other New Songs-
Lee Ann Womack- “Last Call” at #47
Gretchen Wilson- “Don’t Do Me No Good” at #52
Trisha Yearwood- “They Call It Falling For A Reason” at #55
Billy Currington- “Don’t” at #58
Phil Vassar- “I Would” at #59

Returning to the Top 60-
Little Big Town- “Fine Line” at #51 (spent one week at #60 two weeks ago)

Leaving the Top 60-
Carrie Underwood- “Last Name”
Trisha Yearwood- “This Is Me Your Talking To”
Sugarland, Little Big Town, and Jake Owen- “Life In A Northern Town”
John Michael Montgomery- “If You Ever Went Away”
Sara Evans- “Love You With All My Heart”
David Nail- “I’m About To Come Alive”
Phil Stacey- “Old Glory”

The Top 60

CML Chart: 7/13-7/19/08

Number One:

Blake Shelton- “Home” (Blake’s 4th CML Chart #1)

New Song/Highest Debut:

Phil Stacey- “Old Glory” at #60

Making the Most Noise:

Kid Rock- “All Summer Long” (+7.4 points, up from #58 to #51)

“Saying Goodbye”:

Little Big Town- “Fine Line”

 

The CML Chart Top 60