CML Chart: 8/24-8/30/08

Number One-
Taylor Swift- “Should’ve Said No”-  This is Taylor’s 3rd CML Chart #1.

Highest Debut-
Jake Owen- “Don’t Think I Can’t Love You” at #48

Other New Songs-
“Sweet & Wild”- Dierks Bentley with Sarah Johns at #51
“Change”- Taylor Swift at #53

The Top 60

My being out of town last weekend and again this weekend delayed and will delay posting of my chart (maybe…it depends on how tomorrow goes).  Single Reviews for this week and next week will be done together.  After this weekend, things will be back on track.

Kristy Lee Cook- “Fifteen Minutes of Shame”

So, that didn’t take long.  Just a few months after getting eliminated from American Idol, Kristy Lee Cook has a single on country radio.  Of the most recent “country” Idol contestants who did not win, she’s been the quickest to land a deal and get a song on the radio.

While I think Kristy made some really bad choices when on Idol (if you heard her performance of “Eight Days A Week” you know what I’m talking about), she made the best decision of the entire season.  Her performance of “God Bless The USA” was amazing, was “her,” and is part of the reason she’s found success so early after Idol.  (Of course, her having past records deals might have helped in that).

“Fifteen Minutes of Shame” is a “Kristy Lee Cook” song, allows her talents to actually be heard, and shows that how far she got was not a fluke.  While I was not a fan of her decision making on the show, this song is an example of what a professional can do with a good talent.  If Kristy Lee stays out of the decision making process, she can most likely get established in the business.  Then, she can take chances and record a song that she “countrifies.”  For now, I think she’ll get into the Top 20, but as Kellie Pickler has found out, it’s hard to lose Idol and get early radio success thanks to Carrie Underwood (and that’s not a stab at Carrie, that’s just the way it has been because of the natural comparisons).

Chart Prediction- Top 20

To listen, visit Kristy Lee’s MySpace page.

Carolina Rain- “American Radio”

Carolina Rain hasn’t exactly had much success so far.  Two of their first six singles failed to chart.  It wasn’t until their fourth single that they got into the Top 30, as “Get Outta My Way” made it to #28.  A better song followed with “Isn’t She,” which only made it to #26.  Then, “Dealin’” failed to chart. 

Despite this bad track record, they just seem to be getting better.  This song, “American Radio” goes over a list of classic hit from the 70s and 80s, but it’s not a shameless rundown of all the major hits.  Instead, they use the song titles as “memory markers” and the chorus goes into how these songs bring them back home.  The song is a “reminiscing” song that is sure to take many listeners back to those times.  While those younger than 30 may have heard of the songs, those in their mid-to-late 30s and older should have some kind of connection to this song.

I think Carolina Rain is getting better as they get further along in their career and I think they have found their first Top 20 single.  “American Radio” may not become a classic, but it’s good enough to get this band a little success and may be what pushes over the hump from “one good single away from established band” to “established.”

Chart Prediction- Top 20

To listen, visit Carolina Rain’s MySpace page.

Justin Moore- “Back That Thing Up”

Okay, so this song is different enough and has an attitude and hook that people are going to eat up.  However, I do not like this song that much.  I do find the line about backing a tractor up to be funny, but that’s the writing.  I do think that this song is much better than Justin’s debut single which the record label pulled and replaced with this.  I ain’t even going to mention the title because I think it’s offensive to say the least.

Anyway, back to this song…what else can I say other than that people will eat this up and most likely make this a Top 20 single.  I personally think that Justin’s vocals are average, but this song makes them sound a little more than average.  I’d be more interested to see how he handles a love ballad, but I don’t know if we are going to get enough music out of him to do so.  If this goes Top 20, you can bet there will be another single from his debut album and that his record company (Valory, the same one Jimmy Wayne is on now) will push for him to release something that shows he’s not all attitude.  At least, that’s what I’d do.  While “attitude” from time-to-time is good, all the time can be detrimental to your career.

“Back That Thing Up” may not be my favorite song, but it’s going to catch people’s attentions.

Chart Prediction- Top 20

To listen to a bit of the song, visit Justin’s MySpace page.

Josh Turner- “Everything Is Fine”

Josh Turner, the “deepest” voice in Country Music, is back with the title track and third single from his current album.  The song talks about how “life is good” except they use the line “everything is fine.”  Everything is fine with this song.  It’s positive, upbeat and puts Josh’s great vocals to good use. 

I like Josh Turner for three reasons–he’s genuine, he’s unique, and I can sing along to his songs without straining my voice (I’m a bass who can stretch to baritone sometimes…I’m no tenor, so singing Rascal Flatts is a little hard…).  I absolutely love his Everything Is Fine album and do not disagree with the choice to release this song to the radio.  The only thing I wish could’ve happened would’ve been for this to be released at the beginning of the summer because it’s got a little bit of a summery feel to it.  However, I don’t think that feel is enough to keep the song from climbing up the charts and making it to the Top 10 (which is where “Another Try” should’ve gotten to!).

Chart Prediction- Top 10

To listen to a part of the song, go to Josh’s MySpace page.

Melissa Lawson- “What If It All Goes Right”

I did not watch Nashville Star so I never heard Melissa sing before I heard the song on the radio for the first time.  I’ll tell you something, I think she’s the best winner since Buddy Jewell.  She sounds like she fits on the radio and should have a big hit with her debut single.  The only problem I’ve had with Nashville Star is that the winners were only heard by a small portion of the nation to begin with that when they came to radio, they had no momentum.  With the show on NBC this year, a larger portion of the country who didn’t have USA or had better things to watch at the time, the show got more publicity despite not being a highly rate show.

Buddy Jewell found initial success based on his great first single “Help Pour Out The Rain (Lacey’s Song)” but eventually faded away.  Chris Young, a previous winner, has another single on the radio now and it’s actually his highest charting single and it’s run may not be over yet.  However, he’s on his second album and may not get established.  Nashville Star needs someone to have an established career, and Melisssa may be that person.  I’m a little hesistant to say she will be that person, but at least her debut single should chart better than the previous four winners had.  I can see this song making the Top 10, but probably not much higher.  It’ll be interesting to see how Melissa’s career compares to previous winners and it’ll be interesting to see if she can have a better career than 1st season runner up Miranda Lambert.

Chart Prediction- Top 10

To listen, visit Melissa’s MySpace Page.

Blake Shelton- “She Wouldn’t Be Gone”

Does anyone wonder why Blake recorded “Home” and put it on a re-issued Pure BS?  Simply put, the two singles from that album where the only singleworthy songs, and “The More I Drink” was lucky to crack the Top 20.  Put “Home” on the album and it has merit, changing the album from okay to respectable.

Why am I bringing this up?  “Home” could’ve been the lead single from his upcoming album.  Instead, we get “She Wouldn’t Be Gone.”  You know what, I don’t think it would’ve mattered because both songs are just plain awesome in their own way.

“She Wouldn’t Be Gone” is one of those “how stupid I was” song where the main character realizes that the love of his life wouldn’t be gone if had or hadn’t done the list of things he sings about.  The chorus is very well written and portrays the desperation the character feels about wanting her back.  It’s purely country, has a catchy tune, and will be another big hit for Blake.  I see it making the Top 5 without a problem.  If this single is an any indication, his next album will be a much better listen that Pure BS.

Chart Prediction- Top 5

To listen to a snippet of the song, go to Blake’s MySpace Page.

Kenny Chesney- “Everybody Wants To Go To Heaven”

Someone once said that my mix of country music and math would be interesting if I could find a formula for why Kenny Chesney was so successful.  Well, this song illustrates all the reasons why Kenny is successful.

1.  He Relates to Everyone

The song talks about how a man who “lives it up” on the weekends, still goes to church, and is approached by the pastor to live right.  While I am a little hesistant to completely agree with the characters view of placing more money in the offering plate for his sins, I will say that it is something that everyone thinks of doing from time-to-time.  The title is also another obvious thing that attracts people’s attention because so mnay people want to go to heaven.  The hook, about not going now, is another this that everyone relates to.

2.  He has a unique sound

Can you get any more caribbean than the arrangment.  I’d say Jamaican, but I’m sure that the style is a little more of a broader sound than that.  This isn’t the first time Kenny has tapped into that style and had success.  As a matter of fact, he seems to be the only one who can pull it off nowadays.  He’s becoming the modern day Jimmy Buffett.

3. He doesn’t let people wait long for new music

One thing Kenny doesn’t do is let the radio airwaves be free of new music for new long.  As soon “Better As A Memory” was done with its climb to #1 and was not being played as much in recurrents, Kenny releases this single.  The timing of the song with its sound also helps, but the fact that people know Kenny’s got a new album coming out excites everyone enough for his songs to debut high on the charts.  He has a track record with this, as his last 4 or 5 album lead-offs have been high debuts.  (I’d have to check my “records” to be sure, but I know his last lead single, “Never Wanted Nothing More” was a Top 40 debut).  “Everybody…” debuted at #22, which is more proof that everybody loves Kenny.

I think these three things are contributors to why Kenny is so successful.  If I were to add one, it’d be his love shows, but I can’t really add that because I have never seen him live.  If he is anything like what I’ve heard, then he’s bound to be awesome, which makes people want to hear his music even more.

As far as the charts go, there’s no way this song doesn’t go #1.  It’s got everyone’s attention, sticks in people’s heads, and is easy enough to sing along to on a late summer weekend when people are mourning the end of summer and the beginning of the school year.

Chart Prediction- #1

For a little listen (just the first verse and chorus), go to Kenny’s MySpace page.

Billy Ray Cyrus- “Somebody Said A Prayer”

So, Miley’s dad tried to go it alone without her.  When his previous single was not climbing the charts well, he performed on Dancing With The Stars with Miley and released the duet version of “Ready, Set, Don’t Go.”  The song took off and became Billy Ray’s first Top 5 since 1999’s “Busy Man” and only his second since 1993.  Now, Billy Ray is trying to get more airplay, this time without Miley.  You know what, I think he’s going to get it.

I thought “Ready, Set, Don’t Go” was good enough as just a Billy Ray solo single to do well, but by adding Miley to the mix, it exploded up the charts and gave Billy Ray a chance to release a song on his own to follow up “Ready, Set, Don’t Go.” 

According to what I see at wikipedia, it looks like “Somebody Said A Prayer” is the lead single to his latest album Back to Tennessee.  I think if “Ready, Set, Don’t Go” doesn’t do well, then Billy Ray has no momentum and this song wouldn’t even scratch the surface of the charts.  In the past, I have seen artists come back to radio after some time off and sound good, but radio has no interest.  Billy Ray is new and hot because of Miley, so “Somebody Said A Prayer” is automatically interesting.  Then, after listening to it, people are bound to fall in love with the song.

I can see Billy Ray getting at least into the Top 20 with this song, possibly higher.  I will be bold and predict that Billy Ray will make it to the Top 10 with this song.  If the rest of the upcoming album is on par with the lead single, Billy Ray may be officially back.  (Billy Ray could’ve been back 9 years ago with “Busy Man” but the rest of the album, which I own, was nowhere near as good).

Chart Prediction- Top 10

To listen and get another perspective on the song, visit Country Universe’s review.

Randy Owen- “Like I Never Broke Her Heart”

Okay, so Alabama retired.  That didn’t necessarily mean that Randy Owen retired.  After what I thought was a “charity” single with “Braid My Hair,” Randy is back with what I guess we can say is his second solo single.  Unfortunately, I think Randy should retire himself.  Why ruin a good thing?  I can understand if he still has “the itch” the record and perform, but when you are the lead singer to one of the greatest bands of all time, you may have to pass on scratching that itch.

The song itself is just okay.  It doesn’t make me what to hear it again and it doesn’t stick in my head like a lot of songs do.  While Randy sings it well, as he does every song I’ve ever heard him sing, the arrangement leaves a lot to be desired.  The lyrics are interesting (he sees his old flame and she’s living as if he never broke her heart) but the melody in the chorus just is attrocious.  Randy give an A+ performance on what he was given, but radio is just not going to latch on.  I think, for nostalgia, some stations will play it enough to chart, but I can’t see it getting into the Top 50.

Chart Prediction- Top 60

To listen, visit Randy’s MySpace page.