CML Chart for 12/28/08 to 1/3/09

Brad Paisley’s duet with Keith Urban, “Start A Band,” is the #1 song this week for the final chart of 2008.  New Songs are highlighted by Tim McGraw’s “Nothin’ To Die For,” and include the latest efforts from Trace Adkins, Craig Morgan, Zac Brown Band, and Billy Ray Cyrus.

The Top 60

Stay tuned in the next week as I review each of the new songs to the Top 60 and give you the final details on the new interactive feature of the CML Top 60.

Lance Miller- “Bacon Frying”

“Bacon Frying” is an attempt at a unique hook to end the “we had a fight last night, are we okay this morning” song.  With the “smell of bacon frying in the kitchen” the singer concludes that everything is okay.

Lance Miller is a new artist trying to find his way onto radio.  While I think the hook is fairly decent and that it will garner some radio play, I just think the music is too laid back to be much success.  Lance’s voice doesn’t distinguish him from all the other guys trying to make it in radio, so he needs a good upbeat song to attract attention.  Instead, his people have gone with something that’s not too exciting, so people may be prematurely bored with Lance’s music on the radio.

Chart Prediction- Top 60

Listen: Lance’s MySpace page

George Ducas- “Walk Through This World”

Talk about a blast from the past!  I remember hearing “Lipstick Promises” on the radio a little bit as I started listening to Country.  “Every Time She Passes By” was one of those songs that I liked from watching CMT.  Doing my normal research on the artist before I write a single review helped to bring back some good old memories. 

It has been 12 years since George Ducas has had a single on the radio.  He’s been keeping in the business by writing music, but it had been so long that I had even forgot he had a solo career.  Is this a blessing or a curse as George tries to resurrect that part of his professional life?

I think George has truly kept in touch with the growing trends in Country Music to the points where he knows what people want to listen to.  “Walk Through This World” doesn’t cover new ground as it is about a man looking at what his life would be like without the woman he loves.  He concludes that it’s too hard to fathom that he’d be able to walk through this world without her.  The sentiment behind the lyric is touching and something that people relate to.  George’s voice connects with the song and makes it a truly good listen.  The entire lyric has substance and it may just give him a chance at getting his career going unlike he did in the mid-90’s.

Chart Prediction- Top 10

Listen: George’s MySpace page.

John Rich- “Another You”

There was a reason why John Rich never made it as a solo act between Lonestar and Big & Rich–his songs only interested a select few.  I liked “I Pray For You,” but it wasn’t good enough to launch his solo career.  Now that Big Kenny is recovering from a neck injury, John is trying a solo act until then.  While “Another You” sounds like a lot of today’s music, the one thing it has going against it is that Big Kenny is missing.

As a part of Big & Rich, John Rich’s voice has great support and their style fits the both of them.  However, on his own, John is trying to do it his “old way” instead of the way he established success with as part of Big & Rich.  This could be problematic for him.

I think that, despite some of the naysaying going on about this song, I think there’s going to be enough support from Big & Rich fan’s to give John a boost during this solo project.  This song will hit radio and be somewhat successful, but not as successful as if this where a Big & Rich song.

Chart Prediction- Top 30

Listen: John Rich’s HomePage

Donnie Vondra- “If I Didn’t Love”

Sometimes, Country Music writers create a love song with a good title and/or hook, but that’s what they try to rely on to sell the song.  The rest of the song is just “fluff” and “filler” to get from one chorus to the next.  This is an example of the complete opposite.

“If I Didn’t Love You” is not a catchy or creative title, but it doesn’t have to be with the quality of the rest of the lyric.  The song describes all the events that would not have happened in a man’s life had he not loved the woman he is singing to.  This is one of the better written love songs of recent times because it takes you for the ride instead of trying to pump you full of adrenaline at the peak of the chorus.  While those songs are good, sometimes we just want to peruse the full spectrum of love instead.

The way Donnie sings this song is perfect as he doesn’t try to over sing any part of the lyric and just lets his voice and the lyric work together.  The entire song reminds me of some of the good stuff that was coming out in the mid-to-late 90’s (which is when I started listening to Country Music).  It sounds and feels like something from that era, which was one of the strongest times in Country Music.

If this were 1999, I’d think that Donnie would have himself a Top 20 hit with no problem.  However, since it’s about to be 2009, he’s going to have to impact a lot of people the way this song impacts me just to do that.  I’m afraid a lot of today’s listeners are so drawn to the “Country Pop” that they don’t really care for “Pure Country” at all. 

Chart Prediction: Top 50

Listen: Donnie’s MySpace page.

CML Chart for 12/21 to 12/27/08

A little late this week due to Christmas, but here’s the rundown on this week’s chart:

Number One:
Rascal Flatts- “Here”

Debuts:
Steve Holy- “Might Have Been”
Donnie Vondra- “If I Didn’t Love You”
John Rich- “Another You”
George Ducas- “Walk Through This World”
Lance Miller- “Bacon Frying”

The Top 60

Steve Holy- “Might Have Been”

Steve Holy has only had moderate success on the charts.  Steve is an “all-or-not-much” guy when it comes to the radio.  He’s had two #1’s with “Brand New Girlfriend” and “Good Morning Beautiful,” but none of his other ten singles have peaked higher than #24.  Steve’s latest may become his third #1, but it may also be another one to fail to break the Top 20.  It’s hard to tell if there’s going to be no in between with this song.

“Might Have Been” is a song that reflects on what might have been had certain things not happened. The phrase might have been is used both vernaculars–what might have happened, or what might have caused this.  The lyric is beautifully written, beautifully sung, and give a great baseline of emotion for the song.

What puts this song over the top is the connection Steve makes with the song.  Steve has a good voice and has always had interesting subject material for his songs.  He may not have had the best success with trying to carve that type of niche, but for this song it works wonderfully.

The whole “no inbetween” expression from earlier makes it seem obvious what I’m going to predict.  This song is too good to be #24 or lower and is good enough to be a #1.  I’ve predicted #1 songs before, only to have them fall far short (see Rodney Atkins’ “Invisibly Shaken”).  I really think this song will make the Top 5 for sure and may sneak into #1 based on the competition at the time.  I’m going to play it safe and predict that this will be his first song to break his trend.

Prediction- Top 5

Listen

Josh Gracin- “Telluride”

Once upon a time, there was this song on a Tim McGraw album that I could never figure out why he never released as a single.  Now, some 7 years later, the song has finally been released, but by another artist.  Josh Gracin doesn’t sing it with the same attitude and passion that Tim McGraw did, but he still sings it well enough.  The song will carry itself as it is a well written song that can be sung differently by any artist who puts their interpretation on it.

As for radio success, I definitely think Josh will squeak into the Top 20 with the song, but his version will not make it much further.  Had he sung it exactly like Tim McGraw did, then he’d be looking at another Top 10.

Chart Prediction: Top 20

Listen: Josh’s MySpace Page (need to go to his We Weren’t Crazy playlist as of this post)

CML Chart for 12/14 to 12/20/08

Montgomery Gentry remains at #1 this week with “Roll With Me” and there’s only one new song–”Telluride” by Josh Gracin.

To check out the chart, visit the CML Chart Top 60 page.

Coming soon:  You get to help make the chart every week.  More details to follow in two weeks when it all begins.

CML Chart: 12/7 to 12/13/08

Number One:
Montgomery Gentry finds their way into the #1 spot on the CML Chart this week with their latest, “Roll With Me.”

Highest Debut:
This week’s highest debut is also the only debut as Taylor Swift storms onto the chart at #34 with “White Horse.”  Taylor pulls a “Kenny Chesney” where her single was heavily added in its first week on the radio, pushing it to a high debut on The CML Chart this week.  (Kenny Chesney seems to always have singles that debut in the Top 40 the first week it is out).

The CML Chart

Just a reminder, the chart will become “interactive” starting shortly after New Year’s.